California based lenders are facing a high volume of construction loan defaults. Lenders based in the sunshine state with significant levels of OREO ($1M or more) are showing an average construction loan default rate of nearly 15%. At the time this data was compiled these lenders were carrying about $740M in construction OREO while they had an aggregated balance of just under $4B in nonaccrual construction loans. Nonaccrual is a loan’s last stop on the property’s way to becoming bank owned or else being sold to a third party at foreclosure. Each loan type showed significantly higher levels of nonaccrual than REO at when this data was compiled.
One hundred and twenty three banks headquartered in California are showing just under $9.5B in distressed, defaulting, or otherwise challenged real estate loans. Residential loans showed the second largest volume of problem loans with about $2.65B in total problem loans. More troubling than the total volume of distress in this category is the fact that only about 10% is currently bank owned and therefore probably on the market. These figures could point to a 10-fold increase in bank owned properties coming to market.
Commercial real estate investors should expect to see 10-12X the volume of distressed opportunities over the coming months. With only $181M currently in REO portfolios California banks are likely to see more than $1.2B in trouble in the not too distant future.
Details for each of the lenders in the category are available in the full California Bank Owned Real Estate Report.